FPL Tips GW8: Captain, Transfers and Clean Sheets from the Odds
By Implied Fantasy · Odds last refreshed Sat 17 Oct, 14:20 UK
Deadline Friday 23 October at 18:30 UK. 10 fixtures. The market's captain is Haaland (11.4 expected points with the armband). The best clean sheet chance is Arsenal at 48% against EVE (H). Every number below comes from bookmaker odds with the margin stripped out; nothing is a hunch, and anything the market does not price says so.
Captain
Transfers in
The best expected points this week among players owned by fewer than one in four managers: Cunha (£7.9m, 4.8 v BOU (H)), Saka (£9.6m, 4.6 v EVE (H)), Mbeumo (£7.8m, 4.5 v BOU (H)) and Schade (£6.2m, 4.4 v HUL (A)).
- CunhaMID · MUN · £7.9m · 7% owned4.8 xPts · 31% to score
- SakaMID · ARS · £9.6m · 17% owned4.6 xPts · 32% to score
- MbeumoMID · MUN · £7.8m · 20% owned4.5 xPts · 34% to score
- SchadeMID · BRE · £6.2m · 14% owned4.4 xPts · 29% to score
Transfers out
Template players (owned by 15% or more) the market is least excited about this week:
- DubravkaGKP · TOT · 17% ownedstart chance 7%
- VerbruggenGKP · BHA · 22% ownedonly 2.0 expected against LIV (A)
- KinskyGKP · TOT · 16% ownedonly 2.2 expected against CHE (A)
Rotation risk among the rest: João Pedro (79% to appear), De Cuyper (79% to appear) and Verbruggen (79% to appear). Start chances for every player →
Differentials
Under 10% owned and rated by the market: Cunha (31% to score, 7% owned, edge 4.6), Murillo (8% to score, 2% owned, edge 3.8), Stach (19% to score, 2% owned, edge 8.1). The full list →
Clean sheets
Defences the market trusts
| Team | Opp | CS % | Probability bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | EVE (H) | 48% | |
| Brentford | HUL (A) | 34% | |
| Man City | AVL (A) | 30% | |
| Chelsea | TOT (H) | 29% | |
| Leeds | SUN (A) | 29% | |
| Nott'm Forest | IPS (A) |
Fixtures to target
Over the next three gameweeks the market rates Arsenal, Brentford, Man City and Chelsea as the kindest runs and Everton, Aston Villa and Bournemouth as the hardest. Difficulty blends win probability with expected goals conceded; weeks the bookmakers have not priced use FPL's own rating. The full grid →
Price watch
Predicted for tonight's update: rising Cherki (£7.9m), Calafiori (£5.9m) and Manzambi (£5.9m); falling Diop (£4.0m), Bentancur (£5.5m) and Khusanov (£5.4m). Experimental, with the hit rate shown on the page. Price changes tonight →
Chips
No double or blank gameweeks announced through GW16, so hold the chips. Value your chips on your own squad →
The market's XI
The best legal eleven the solver can buy for £100m this week projects 49.7 points. Build your own →
Every number above is derived from de-vigged market probabilities; see the methodology. The article is drafted from the data at the time shown and refreshes as the odds move. Not affiliated with the Premier League or Fantasy Premier League.