What FPL has said
The flag appeared after Gameweek 7. Haaland played the full 90 minutes at home to Ipswich, scored twice and took three bonus points for 13 in all. FPL's note reads "unspecified injury, 75% chance of playing". That is all the game itself has said.
What has been reported
BBC Sport reported on Monday that Haaland took a blow to the foot against Ipswich and is a doubt for City's Champions League game against AEK Athens on Tuesday night. Enzo Maresca did not rule him out, saying that as long as Haaland is available he is the first-choice nine. A knock that keeps him out of a midweek European game is a different thing from one that keeps him out of Villa away on Saturday, and the team sheet on Tuesday night will be the first real evidence either way.
What the market said on Saturday
Before kick-off the bookmakers made him 61% to score, four points higher than when the Ipswich odds first opened on Tuesday. His start chance in our model was 93%. In other words, the market had no doubts about him going into the game, and the two goals suggest it was right.
What the market says for Gameweek 8
The first Gameweek 8 goalscorer prices opened at lunchtime on Tuesday, and all six bookmakers we read have priced Haaland for City's trip to Aston Villa. With the margin removed he is 51% to score, down from 61% at home to Ipswich; an away game at Villa is a harder fixture, so not all of that drop is about the foot. The bookmakers have not withdrawn him, which is the first thing they usually do with a serious doubt.
Our start chance carries FPL's flag, so it sits at 70% rather than his usual 93%. Put together, that is 4.6 expected points, 9.3 as captain, third on the captain page behind Cole Palmer at home to Spurs on 9.4. Assist markets have not opened yet, so these are early numbers and they will move.
Why it matters more than most flags
Haaland is owned by 99% of the top 10,000 managers in our latest sample and captained by 94% of them, against 77% ownership overall. For most managers the question is not whether to buy him but whether to keep the armband on him. A 75% flag on a player everyone owns moves the whole leaderboard; a 75% flag on a differential moves one team.
What the numbers suggest for now
Nothing yet calls for selling him: the market still prices him close to his usual level, and he is still in the top three captains even with the flag counted. The evidence to watch is City's team sheet against AEK Athens on Tuesday night and whatever Maresca says before Villa. If he plays in Europe, expect the flag and the start chance to rise; if he does not, expect the bookmakers to cut him first. His page updates with every refresh.