The result, every player's points and what the odds said before kick-off.
How to use this →Gameweek 8Tips and overview →
Played: Aston Villa 2-1 Man City. N.Jackson top-scored with 13 points. Before kick-off the odds had Aston Villa 20% and Man City 58%. As of Fri 23 Oct, 18:07 UK.
Written from the odds as they stood before the Gameweek 8 deadline.
Aston Villa are 20% to win at home, Man City 58%, the draw 22%: a heavy lean to Man City. The market expects 1.2 goals from Aston Villa and 2.1 from Man City; the likeliest score is 1-2 (10%), then 1-1 and 0-2.
Man City are 31% to keep a clean sheet, Aston Villa 12%.
Nobody from Aston Villa clears 4 points, so this is a match to pick against rather than from.
Haaland is the pick from Man City: 6.9 expected points, 53% to score and 18% to assist, owned by 99% of the top 10k at £15.8m. Then Cherki on 4.5 and Ndiaye on 4.4.
Haaland is the best captain pick of Gameweek 8 on 6.9 expected points, so the armband belongs in this match.
Aston Villa 2-1 Man City, against the lean to Man City. The top score was N.Jackson's 13 points (2 goals).
Our picks: Buendía 0 (expected 3.9) and Haaland 8 (expected 6.9).
| 3.6 |
| 27% |
| 73% |
| + Watch |
| McGinnAVL · MID£5.4m · 93% to start | 3.3 | 16% | 1% | + Watch |
| KamaraAVL · MID£5.0m · 93% to start | 3.0 | 5% | — | + Watch |
| BarkleyAVL · MID£5.0m · 93% to start | 2.4 | 14% | — | + Watch |
| Player | GW8 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HaalandMCI · FWD£15.8m · 93% to start | 6.9 | 53% | 99% | + Watch |
| CherkiMCI · MID£7.9m · 79% to start | 4.5 | 27% | 10% | + Watch |
| NdiayeMCI · MID£5.8m · 93% to start | 4.4 | 25% | 2% | + Watch |
| AndersonMCI · MID£6.2m · 93% to start | 3.7 | 11% | 0% | + Watch |
| GuéhiMCI · DEF£6.0m · 93% to start | 3.6 | 9% | 1% | + Watch |
| 2 |
| McGinnAVL · MIDexpected 3.3 | 6 | — | 1 | 1 |
| NdiayeMCI · MIDexpected 4.4 | 5 | — | 1 | — |
| SuzukiAVL · GKPexpected 2.1 | 4 | — | — | — |
| KamaraAVL · MIDexpected 3.0 | 4 | — | — | — |
| MbayeAVL · MIDexpected 1.7 | 4 | — | 1 | — |
| CashAVL · DEFexpected 1.9 | 3 | — | — | — |
| KhusanovMCI · DEFexpected 1.4 | 3 | — | — | — |
| GomesAVL · MIDexpected 2.0 | 2 | — | — | — |
| MaatsenAVL · DEFexpected 1.2 | 2 | — | — | — |
| PauAVL · DEFexpected 0.6 | 2 | — | — | — |
| EnzoMCI · MIDexpected 3.2 | 2 | — | — | — |
| LindelöfAVL · DEFexpected 2.2 | 2 | — | — | — |
| DokuMCI · MIDexpected 2.4 | 2 | — | — | — |
| FodenMCI · MIDexpected 3.0 | 1 | — | — | — |
| AlyssonAVL · MIDexpected 1.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| BarkleyAVL · MIDexpected 2.4 | 1 | — | — | — |
| DonnarummaMCI · GKPexpected 3.2 | 1 | — | — | — |
| RúbenMCI · DEFexpected 3.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| GvardiolMCI · DEFexpected 3.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| LewisMCI · DEFexpected 0.2 | 1 | — | — | — |
| AndersonMCI · MIDexpected 3.7 | 1 | — | — | — |
| GoretzkaAVL · MIDexpected 0.5 | 1 | — | — | — |
| ManzambiAVL · MIDexpected 1.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| MadjoAVL · FWDexpected 0.3 | 0 | — | — | — |
| BuendíaAVL · MIDexpected 3.9 | 0 | — | — | — |
| CherkiMCI · MIDexpected 4.5 | 0 | — | — | — |
| GuéhiMCI · DEFexpected 3.6 | 0 | — | — | — |
| McAidooMCI · MIDexpected 1.1 | 0 | — | — | — |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
A free account brings the deadline email with your captain and bench, injury alerts for players you watch, and price alerts the evening before they move.