Lacroix out for Man Utd and feared out until January: sell him for Hill

Update, Friday 30 October

Yahoo Sports reports that Maxence Lacroix will miss Saturday's game against Man Utd, and BBC Sport and The New York Times report fears that his hamstring injury could keep him out until January. That is a fear, not a confirmed timescale, but the Evening Standard also reports he could miss months. FPL now lists him as injured, with a 0% chance of playing and no return date.

That changes the call. Benching him made sense for a short-term doubt. A defender who may not play again before the new year should go. If you have a free transfer, sell him for James Hill, who is at home to Leeds. Adrien Truffert costs £5.4m and projects 3.9 points. James Tarkowski costs £6.2m, more than Lacroix, and projects less, with 3.7 at Newcastle on Monday. If you have no free transfer, keep Lacroix out of your starting XI and sell him next week.

A costly cup night

Maxence Lacroix went off in Chelsea's Carabao Cup defeat at Liverpool. Two days before Manchester United come to Stamford Bridge, a £5.9m defender is now a selection headache.

He wasn't the only casualty. Yahoo Sports reports that three Chelsea players picked up injuries in the defeat, and Xabi Alonso has given an update on Lacroix's hamstring. The club's official site carries Alonso's updates on Lacroix, Malo Gusto and Moisés Caicedo, and Goal says Chelsea's injury problems are getting worse. Nobody has said for certain whether Lacroix plays on Saturday.

75% on paper, 70% in the market

FPL has flagged him as doubtful with a 75% chance of playing. The market is a touch less generous. It gives him a 70% chance of appearing and 2.6 expected points against Man Utd, with a 7% chance of scoring. That's a thin return for one of the pricier defenders in your squad, and he's in 6.3% of teams.

Don't count on cheap Chelsea cover either. FPL lists Gusto and Caicedo as fully available, but the market gives each of them only a 50% chance of appearing. That comes to 1.4 expected points for Gusto and 1.7 for Caicedo. Someone has to start for Chelsea on Saturday. The market just isn't sure who.

Cheaper defenders who will play

You don't need to spend more to do better. James Hill costs £5.5m and is at home to Leeds, with a 93% chance of appearing and 4.2 expected points. Nordi Mukiele costs £5.4m and goes to Coventry City, with 4.0. Adrien Truffert, Hill's Bournemouth teammate, costs the same £5.4m and is on 3.9. All three are cheaper than Lacroix and all three project at least 1.3 points more this week.

Bench him, or swap him for Hill

If Lacroix is already on your bench, leave him there. If he's in your starting XI and you have a fit defender among your substitutes, bench him. Against those numbers, a 70% chance of playing isn't worth the risk.

If you have a free transfer and no other defender to bring in, sell him for Hill. That gets you 1.6 more expected points, a far likelier starter and £0.4m in the bank. The only reason to keep Lacroix in your team is a strong positive update before the deadline, so check the injuries page and plan around it in the planner.