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8 November 2026

Rogers blanks at Sunderland: keep him, his chance to score against Leeds is up

Morgan Rogers managed 2 points from 90 minutes at Sunderland, but the market has him slightly more likely to score at home to Leeds in GW11, so keep him.

By · 8 November 2026
Figures as of Sunday 8 November at 16:09 UK

Morgan Rogers played the full 90 minutes away at Sunderland on Sunday 8 November and scored 2 points, with no goal and no assist. He is owned by 53.9% of managers and by 92.8% of the top 10k, so a lot of teams had the same quiet afternoon.

What the numbers said

The market expected this sort of result more often than not. At the deadline Rogers was on 5 expected points with a 30% chance to score, so most matches like this one end without a goal from him. Nobody at his price was rated above him for GW10 either: Bryan Mbeumo also had 5 expected points, Bradley Barcola had 4.7 and Matheus Cunha had 4.5. Picking Rogers was the right call. The goal just didn't come.

Leeds next

Chelsea are home to Leeds in GW11. The market gives Rogers a 31% chance to score, up slightly from the 30% he had for Sunderland. His expected points have fallen from 5 to 4.1. Chelsea have a 52% chance to win and a 34% chance of a clean sheet. Against a different opponent his total comes out lower, but his chance of scoring has gone up, not down.

The crowd

Most managers are not selling. Since the deadline 27,338 have brought Rogers in and 3,720 have moved him out, and his price has not changed (+£0.0m). The managers selling are reacting to a single 2-point week, and next week's odds give them no reason to.

The call

If you own him, keep him and start him. A template player should stay until the market turns against him, and it hasn't. His chance to score is up, and his lower expected-points figure doesn't justify using a transfer on Mbeumo, Barcola or Cunha, whose GW10 numbers were no better than his. Use your transfer elsewhere in the squad. The planner will show you where.

Sources: Fantasy Premier League

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Every number here is derived from de-vigged market probabilities or FPL's own data, read at the time shown. Nothing here is a hunch. Methodology →