Cole Palmer played all 90 minutes away at Sunderland on Sunday 8 November and finished with 2 points: no goal and no assist. He is owned by 28.6% of managers and 75.5% of the top 10,000, so almost every strong team took the same blank.
At the deadline he had 5.1 expected points and a 32% chance to score. A 32% chance means he does not score about two times in three, and Sunday was one of those times. The 2 points do not show the numbers were wrong. They show what those numbers allowed for.
What the market gives him against Leeds
In GW11 Chelsea are at home to Leeds. The odds give Palmer a 35% chance to score, up from 32% last week. Chelsea have a 52% chance to win and a 34% chance of a clean sheet. His expected points come to 4.5, which is 0.6 lower than his figure for Sunderland. So his overall number has slipped a little even though his chance of a goal has gone up. That is still a solid starting figure. Whether he should be captain depends on who else is in your team, and the captain page ranks the options.
What the crowd has done
Since the deadline 6,750 managers have sold him, but 15,563 have bought him. That leaves him nearly 8,800 transfers up, and his price has not moved from £9.8m. The sellers are reacting to the 2 points. The market has barely changed: 0.6 fewer expected points and a better chance of a goal.
If you own him, keep him and start him against Leeds. Selling a player most of the top 10,000 own after one blank costs you a transfer to take on that risk yourself, and nothing in the odds supports it. If his number keeps falling over the coming weeks, plan the move then in the planner, not today.
Sources: Fantasy Premier League