The result, every player's points and what the odds said before kick-off.
How to use this →Gameweek 7Tips and overview →
Played: Nott'm Forest 0-1 Arsenal. Raya top-scored with 9 points. Before kick-off the odds had Nott'm Forest 17% and Arsenal 59%. As of Sat 17 Oct, 10:39 UK.
Written from the odds as they stood before the Gameweek 7 deadline.
Nott'm Forest are 17% to win at home, Arsenal 59%, the draw 25%: a heavy lean to Arsenal. The market expects 0.9 goals from Nott'm Forest and 1.8 from Arsenal; the likeliest score is 0-1 (13%), then 0-2 and 1-1.
Arsenal are 42% to keep a clean sheet, Nott'm Forest 17%: Arsenal's defenders are in play this week.
Nobody from Nott'm Forest clears 4 points, so this is a match to pick against rather than from.
Saka is the pick from Arsenal: 5.2 expected points, 30% to score and 25% to assist, though FPL has him at 0% to play, owned by 0% of the top 10k at £9.4m. Then Ødegaard on 4.7 and Havertz on 4.4.
Flagged: Saka (0%).
Saka is the 4th best pick of Gameweek 7 on 5.2, behind Haaland on 7.6: a captain option, not the first one.
Nott'm Forest 0-1 Arsenal, as the odds leaned. The top score was Raya's 9 points.
Our picks: Murillo 2 (expected 3.6) and Saka 3 (expected 5.2).
Arsenal kept a clean sheet, at 42% before kick-off.
| 3.4 |
| 10% |
| — |
| + Watch |
| Gibbs-WhiteNFO · MID£7.8m · 70% to start | 3.0 | 20% | 13% | + Watch |
| SchlagerNFO · MID£5.0m · 93% to start | 3.0 | 6% | — | + Watch |
| NdoyeNFO · MID£5.5m · 93% to start | 2.9 | 13% | 0% | + Watch |
| Player | GW7 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SakaARS · MID£9.4m · 93% to start | 5.2 | 30% | 0% | + Watch |
| ØdegaardARS · MID£6.7m · 93% to start | 4.7 | 18% | 6% | + Watch |
| HavertzARS · FWD£7.4m · 93% to start | 4.4 | 35% | 1% | + Watch |
| CalafioriARS · DEF£5.9m · 93% to start | 4.3 | 10% | 82% | + Watch |
| RiceARS · MID£7.5m · 93% to start | 4.0 | 12% | 2% | + Watch |
| 3 |
| KonsaARS · DEFexpected 3.4 | 9 | — | — | 3 |
| GabrielARS · DEFexpected 3.9 | 8 | — | — | — |
| CalafioriARS · DEFexpected 4.3 | 6 | — | — | — |
| WhiteARS · DEFexpected 3.3 | 6 | — | — | — |
| MaduekeARS · MIDexpected 1.9 | 5 | 1 | — | — |
| SchlagerNFO · MIDexpected 3.0 | 4 | — | — | — |
| NdoyeNFO · MIDexpected 2.9 | 3 | — | — | — |
| Bruno G.ARS · MIDexpected 2.1 | 3 | — | — | — |
| N.WilliamsNFO · DEFexpected 2.7 | 3 | — | — | — |
| SakaARS · MIDexpected 5.2 | 3 | — | — | — |
| ØdegaardARS · MIDexpected 4.7 | 3 | — | — | — |
| DominguezNFO · MIDexpected 0.5 | 3 | — | — | — |
| DiomandeNFO · DEFexpected 1.6 | 2 | — | — | — |
| HavertzARS · FWDexpected 4.4 | 2 | — | — | — |
| DelapNFO · FWDexpected 2.4 | 2 | — | — | — |
| MuñozNFO · DEFexpected 1.7 | 2 | — | — | — |
| SelsNFO · GKPexpected 2.2 | 2 | — | — | — |
| MurilloNFO · DEFexpected 3.6 | 2 | — | — | — |
| Jair CunhaNFO · DEFexpected 1.8 | 2 | — | — | — |
| McAteeNFO · MIDexpected 3.4 | 2 | — | — | — |
| GyökeresARS · FWDexpected 1.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| J.TimberARS · DEFexpected 1.1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| MerinoARS · MIDexpected 2.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| I.SangaréNFO · MIDexpected 1.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| WoodNFO · FWDexpected 1.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| KalimuendoNFO · FWDexpected 0.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| EzeARS · MIDexpected 2.1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| Hudson-OdoiNFO · MIDexpected 0.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
A free account brings the deadline email with your captain and bench, injury alerts for players you watch, and price alerts the evening before they move.