FPL clean sheet odds, GW7

How to use this

1. 1Read the bar as the chance the club concedes nothing. Goalkeepers and defenders earn four points for it, midfielders one.
2. 2A clean sheet chance above 40% is strong for a Premier League side; the league average in a week is about 30%.
3. 3Pair this with expected goals conceded: a side that is likely to concede once but rarely twice still protects defenders from the minus-one.
4. 4Double gameweeks show both fixtures; the probabilities are per match, not combined.

Where the numbers come from

We fit each match's expected goals from the result and total-goals markets, which gives the chance the opponent scores zero. Where a bookmaker offers a team-total line we use that directly, because it is a price on exactly this question.

Every probability has the margin removed and is averaged across books, so it is what the market believes, not what it charges.

Full methodology →

Questions

Which team is most likely to keep a clean sheet in GW7?

The top row of the table. Probabilities update with the odds through the week, so the deadline-morning table is the one to act on.

How do you turn odds into a clean sheet probability?

By fitting expected goals for each side from the match result and total goals markets and taking the chance of zero, or by reading a team-total line where one exists. The bookmaker's margin is removed first.

What counts as a good clean sheet chance in FPL?

Above 40% is strong, 30% is average, under 20% is a side to avoid for defenders unless they offer attacking returns.

Related

• Fixture difficulty for the next six gameweeks
• Expected points for defenders
• How team goals and clean sheets are modelled