The result, every player's points and what the odds said before kick-off.
How to use this →Gameweek 7Tips and overview →
Played: Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa. Manzambi top-scored with 11 points. Before kick-off the odds had Newcastle 42% and Aston Villa 32%. As of Sat 17 Oct, 10:39 UK.
Written from the odds as they stood before the Gameweek 7 deadline.
Newcastle are 42% to win at home, Aston Villa 32%, the draw 26%: as even as a match gets. The market expects 1.6 goals from Newcastle and 1.4 from Aston Villa; the likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), then 2-1 and 1-2.
Newcastle are 24% to keep a clean sheet, Aston Villa 19%: goals at both ends, so neither defence is a pick on the clean sheet alone.
The cheap one: Botman at £5.0m, 4.0 points and 93% to start.
Buendía is the pick from Aston Villa: 4.6 expected points, 25% to score and 19% to assist, owned by 0% of the top 10k at £5.9m. Then McGinn on 3.9 and N.Jackson on 3.5.
The cheap one: McGinn at £5.4m, 3.9 points and 93% to start.
No captain here: the best pick in the match, Buendía, is 4.6 against Haaland's 7.6 elsewhere.
Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa, against the lean to Newcastle. The top score was Manzambi's 11 points (1 goal).
Our picks: Barnes 2 (expected 4.5) and Buendía 3 (expected 4.6).
Aston Villa kept a clean sheet, at 19% before kick-off.
| 4.1 |
| 31% |
| 1% |
| + Watch |
| BotmanNEW · DEF£5.0m · 93% to start | 4.0 | 6% | 0% | + Watch |
| ThiawNEW · DEF£4.9m · 93% to start | 3.8 | 8% | 0% | + Watch |
| HallNEW · DEF£5.2m · 79% to start | 3.5 | 8% | 20% | + Watch |
| Player | GW7 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BuendíaAVL · MID£5.9m · 93% to start | 4.6 | 25% | 0% | + Watch |
| McGinnAVL · MID£5.4m · 93% to start | 3.9 | 17% | 1% | + Watch |
| N.JacksonAVL · FWD£7.1m · 79% to start | 3.5 | 32% | 73% | + Watch |
| KamaraAVL · MID£5.0m · 93% to start | 3.0 | 7% | — | + Watch |
| LindelöfAVL · DEF£4.5m · 93% to start | 2.7 | 5% | 0% | + Watch |
| 1 |
| CashAVL · DEFexpected 2.1 | 8 | — | — | — |
| SuzukiAVL · GKPexpected 2.5 | 8 | — | — | 2 |
| MingsAVL · DEFexpected 2.3 | 7 | — | — | 1 |
| Wan-BissakaAVL · DEFexpected 1.3 | 6 | — | — | — |
| KamaraAVL · MIDexpected 3.0 | 5 | — | — | — |
| GomesAVL · MIDexpected 1.6 | 5 | — | 1 | — |
| HallNEW · DEFexpected 3.5 | 4 | — | — | — |
| N.GonzalezNEW · MIDexpected 1.9 | 3 | — | — | — |
| BuendíaAVL · MIDexpected 4.6 | 3 | — | — | — |
| BotmanNEW · DEFexpected 4.0 | 3 | — | — | — |
| HorníčekNEW · GKPexpected 3.0 | 2 | — | — | — |
| BarnesNEW · MIDexpected 4.5 | 2 | — | — | — |
| L.MileyNEW · MIDexpected 2.6 | 2 | — | — | — |
| N.JacksonAVL · FWDexpected 3.5 | 2 | — | — | — |
| Fernandez-PardoNEW · FWDexpected 2.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| PauAVL · DEFexpected 1.1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| McGinnAVL · MIDexpected 3.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| BarkleyAVL · MIDexpected 2.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| ThiawNEW · DEFexpected 3.8 | 1 | — | — | — |
| BurnNEW · DEFexpected 0.4 | 1 | — | — | — |
| JoelintonNEW · MIDexpected 0.6 | 1 | — | — | — |
| WillockNEW · MIDexpected 3.2 | 1 | — | — | — |
| TouréNEW · MIDexpected 1.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| WissaNEW · FWDexpected 4.1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| GoretzkaAVL · MIDexpected 0.2 | 1 | — | — | — |
| MbayeAVL · MIDexpected 1.5 | 1 | — | — | — |
| OsulaNEW · FWDexpected 1.3 | 0 | — | — | — |
| AlyssonAVL · MIDexpected 2.2 | 0 | — | — | — |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
A free account brings the deadline email with your captain and bench, injury alerts for players you watch, and price alerts the evening before they move.