The result, every player's points and what the odds said before kick-off.
How to use this →Gameweek 10Tips and overview →
Played: Man Utd 4-4 Aston Villa. Alysson top-scored with 16 points. Before kick-off the odds had Man Utd 44% and Aston Villa 31%. As of Fri 6 Nov, 18:16 UK.
Written from the odds as they stood before the Gameweek 10 deadline.
Man Utd are 44% to win at home, Aston Villa 31%, the draw 26%. The market expects 1.7 goals from Man Utd and 1.4 from Aston Villa; the likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), then 2-1 and 1-0.
Man Utd are 25% to keep a clean sheet, Aston Villa 19%.
Mbeumo is the pick from Man Utd: 5.0 expected points, 33% to score and 17% to assist, owned by 21% of the top 10k at £7.9m. Then Cunha on 4.5 and B.Fernandes on .
N.Jackson is the pick from Aston Villa: 4.7 expected points, 33% to score and 14% to assist, owned by 73% of the top 10k at £7.1m. Then Manzambi on 4.4 and Buendía on 3.9.
The cheap one: McGinn at £5.4m, 3.8 points and 93% to start.
No captain here: the best pick in the match, Mbeumo, is 5.0 against Haaland's 6.9 elsewhere.
Man Utd 4-4 Aston Villa, a draw. The top score was Alysson's 16 points (1 goal, 2 assists).
Our picks: Mbeumo 2 (expected 5.0) and N.Jackson 11 (expected 4.7).
| 4.5 |
| 27% |
| — |
| + Watch |
| B.FernandesMUN · MID£11.6m · 79% to start | 4.3 | 29% | 1% | + Watch |
| MaguireMUN · DEF£4.6m · 93% to start | 3.5 | 9% | 0% | + Watch |
| TielemansMUN · MID£5.6m · 79% to start | 2.9 | 15% | — | + Watch |
| Player | GW10 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.JacksonAVL · FWD£7.1m · 93% to start | 4.7 | 33% | 73% | + Watch |
| ManzambiAVL · MID£6.2m · 93% to start | 4.4 | 24% | 26% | + Watch |
| BuendíaAVL · MID£5.9m · 93% to start | 3.9 | 21% | 0% | + Watch |
| McGinnAVL · MID£5.4m · 93% to start | 3.8 | 16% | 1% | + Watch |
| KamaraAVL · MID£5.0m · 93% to start | 3.1 | 6% | — | + Watch |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| N.JacksonAVL · FWDexpected 4.7 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| B.FernandesMUN · MIDexpected 4.3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | — |
| McGinnAVL · MIDexpected 3.8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | — |
| TielemansMUN · MIDexpected 2.9 | 7 | 1 | — | — |
| GoretzkaAVL · MIDexpected 1.4 | 7 | 1 | — | — |
| ZirkzeeMUN · FWDexpected 2.1 | 5 | 1 | — | — |
| CunhaMUN · MIDexpected 4.5 | 5 | — | 1 | — |
| MainooMUN · MIDexpected 2.5 | 4 | — | — | — |
| KamaraAVL · MIDexpected 3.1 | 4 | — | — | — |
| MazraouiMUN · DEFexpected 0.4 | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| PauAVL · DEFexpected 1.3 | 2 | — | — | — |
| LindelöfAVL · DEFexpected 2.8 | 2 | — | — | — |
| ManzambiAVL · MIDexpected 4.4 | 2 | — | — | — |
| YoroMUN · DEFexpected 2.0 | 2 | — | — | — |
| MbeumoMUN · MIDexpected 5.0 | 2 | — | — | — |
| AmadMUN · MIDexpected 2.5 | 2 | — | — | — |
| BarkleyAVL · MIDexpected 2.6 | 1 | — | — | — |
| MadjoAVL · FWDexpected 0.8 | 1 | — | — | — |
| LammensMUN · GKPexpected 2.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| GomesAVL · MIDexpected 2.4 | 1 | — | — | — |
| MountMUN · MIDexpected 2.0 | 1 | — | — | — |
| MbayeAVL · MIDexpected 2.5 | 1 | — | — | — |
| George HemmingsAVL · MIDexpected 0.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| LaceyMUN · MIDexpected 0.7 | 1 | — | — | — |
| DalotMUN · DEFexpected 2.8 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Harwood-BellisAVL · DEFexpected 0.1 | 0 | — | — | — |
| SuzukiAVL · GKPexpected 2.7 | 0 | — | — | — |
| MaguireMUN · DEFexpected 3.5 | 0 | — | — | — |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
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