The result, every player's points and what the odds said before kick-off.
How to use this →Gameweek 7Tips and overview →
Played: Leeds 1-1 Man Utd. Calvert-Lewin top-scored with 9 points. Before kick-off the odds had Leeds 41% and Man Utd 33%. As of Sat 17 Oct, 10:39 UK.
Written from the odds as they stood before the Gameweek 7 deadline.
Leeds are 41% to win at home, Man Utd 33%, the draw 27%: as even as a match gets. The market expects 1.6 goals from Leeds and 1.4 from Man Utd; the likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), then 2-1 and 1-0.
Leeds are 25% to keep a clean sheet, Man Utd 21%: goals at both ends, so neither defence is a pick on the clean sheet alone.
Stach is the pick from Leeds: 4.8 expected points, 18% to score and 21% to assist, though FPL has him at 50% to play, owned by 1% of the top 10k at £6.0m. Then Calvert-Lewin on and on .
| Player | GW7 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StachLEE · MID£6.0m · 93% to start | 4.8 | 18% | 1% | + Watch |
| Calvert-Lewin |
| Player | Points | Goals | Assists | Bonus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvert-LewinLEE · FWDexpected 4.5 | 9 | 1 | — | 3 |
| MbeumoMUN · MIDexpected 4.2 | 8 | 1 | — |
The cheap one: Muharemović at £5.1m, 4.0 points and 93% to start.
Flagged: Stach (50%).
Cunha is the pick from Man Utd: 4.7 expected points, 23% to score and 16% to assist, owned by 5.6% at £7.8m. Then B.Fernandes on 4.6 and Mbeumo on 4.2.
No captain here: the best pick in the match, Stach, is 4.8 against Haaland's 7.6 elsewhere.
Leeds 1-1 Man Utd, a draw. The top score was Calvert-Lewin's 9 points (1 goal).
Our picks: Stach 2 (expected 4.8) and Cunha 1 (expected 4.7).
| 4.5 |
| 37% |
| 23% |
| + Watch |
| OkaforLEE · MID£5.7m · 93% to start | 4.3 | 29% | — | + Watch |
| MuharemovićLEE · DEF£5.1m · 93% to start | 4.0 | 7% | 37% | + Watch |
| JustinLEE · DEF£4.5m · 93% to start | 3.9 | 8% | 1% | + Watch |
| Player | GW7 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CunhaMUN · MID£7.8m · 93% to start | 4.7 | 23% | — | + Watch |
| B.FernandesMUN · MID£11.6m · 93% to start | 4.6 | 24% | 1% | + Watch |
| MbeumoMUN · MID£7.9m · 93% to start | 4.2 | 25% | 21% | + Watch |
| TielemansMUN · MID£5.6m · 93% to start | 3.6 | 10% | — | + Watch |
| RashfordMUN · MID£6.8m · 93% to start | 3.5 | 22% | — | + Watch |
| 1 |
| TielemansMUN · MIDexpected 3.6 | 7 | — | 1 | 2 |
| MuharemovićLEE · DEFexpected 4.0 | 5 | — | 1 | — |
| MaguireMUN · DEFexpected 2.9 | 4 | — | — | — |
| YoroMUN · DEFexpected 0.6 | 4 | — | — | — |
| DalotMUN · DEFexpected 2.2 | 4 | — | — | — |
| MazraouiMUN · DEFexpected 0.2 | 3 | — | — | — |
| LammensMUN · GKPexpected 2.6 | 3 | — | — | — |
| ElvediLEE · DEFexpected 2.5 | 2 | — | — | — |
| BalebaMUN · MIDexpected 0.3 | 2 | — | — | — |
| BogleLEE · DEFexpected 3.5 | 2 | — | — | — |
| JustinLEE · DEFexpected 3.9 | 2 | — | — | — |
| StachLEE · MIDexpected 4.8 | 2 | — | — | — |
| OkaforLEE · MIDexpected 4.3 | 2 | — | — | — |
| TanakaLEE · MIDexpected 2.5 | 2 | — | — | — |
| TraffordLEE · GKPexpected 3.6 | 2 | — | — | — |
| AmadMUN · MIDexpected 0.7 | 2 | — | — | — |
| MartinezMUN · DEFexpected 2.7 | 1 | — | — | — |
| LongstaffLEE · MIDexpected 1.0 | 1 | — | — | — |
| AmpaduLEE · MIDexpected 3.6 | 1 | — | — | — |
| B.FernandesMUN · MIDexpected 4.6 | 1 | — | — | — |
| GudmundssonLEE · DEFexpected 2.0 | 1 | — | — | — |
| CunhaMUN · MIDexpected 4.7 | 1 | — | — | — |
| MountMUN · MIDexpected 0.6 | 1 | — | — | — |
| Andrey SantosMUN · MIDexpected 1.2 | 1 | — | — | — |
| NmechaLEE · FWDexpected 2.7 | 1 | — | — | — |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
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