The result, every player's points and what the odds said before kick-off.
How to use this →Gameweek 7Tips and overview →
Played: Brentford 1-2 Liverpool. Isak top-scored with 9 points. Before kick-off the odds had Brentford 40% and Liverpool 34%. As of Sat 17 Oct, 10:39 UK.
Written from the odds as they stood before the Gameweek 7 deadline.
Brentford are 40% to win at home, Liverpool 34%, the draw 26%: as even as a match gets. The market expects 1.6 goals from Brentford and 1.5 from Liverpool; the likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), then 2-1 and 1-2.
Brentford are 22% to keep a clean sheet, Liverpool 19%: goals at both ends, so neither defence is a pick on the clean sheet alone.
The cheap one: M.Sangaré at £5.4m, 3.6 points and 93% to start.
Flagged: Thiago (0%).
Wirtz is the pick from Liverpool: 3.6 expected points, 18% to score and 21% to assist, owned by 1% of the top 10k at £7.2m. Then Virgil on 3.5 and Jacquet on 3.2.
Nobody from Liverpool clears 4 points, so this is a match to pick against rather than from.
No captain here: the best pick in the match, Janelt, is 4.5 against Haaland's 7.6 elsewhere.
Brentford 1-2 Liverpool, against the lean to Brentford. The top score was Isak's 9 points (1 goal).
Our picks: Janelt -1 (expected 4.5) and Wirtz 5 (expected 3.6).
| 4.4 |
| 41% |
| 2% |
| + Watch |
| M.SangaréBRE · MID£5.4m · 93% to start | 3.6 | 12% | 4% | + Watch |
| Lewis-PotterBRE · MID£5.5m · 93% to start | 3.6 | 18% | 1% | + Watch |
| AnthonyBRE · MID£5.9m · 93% to start | 3.6 | 24% | — | + Watch |
| Player | GW7 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WirtzLIV · MID£7.2m · 93% to start | 3.6 | 18% | 1% | + Watch |
| VirgilLIV · DEF£6.4m · 93% to start | 3.5 | 9% | 1% | + Watch |
| JacquetLIV · DEF£5.1m · 93% to start | 3.2 | 6% | 2% | + Watch |
| MunozLIV · MID£6.5m · 93% to start | 3.1 | 20% | — | + Watch |
| Mac AllisterLIV · MID£5.4m · 93% to start | 3.1 | 13% | — | + Watch |
| 2 |
| Lewis-PotterBRE · MIDexpected 3.6 | 9 | 1 | — | 2 |
| WirtzLIV · MIDexpected 3.6 | 5 | — | 1 | — |
| VirgilLIV · DEFexpected 3.5 | 4 | — | — | — |
| BarcolaLIV · MIDexpected 2.6 | 4 | — | 1 | — |
| ThiagoBRE · FWDexpected 4.4 | 4 | — | 1 | — |
| JacquetLIV · DEFexpected 3.2 | 3 | — | — | — |
| AjerBRE · DEFexpected 3.4 | 3 | — | — | — |
| KelleherBRE · GKPexpected 2.9 | 2 | — | — | — |
| AnthonyBRE · MIDexpected 3.6 | 2 | — | — | — |
| A.BeckerLIV · GKPexpected 2.7 | 2 | — | — | — |
| KerkezLIV · DEFexpected 2.4 | 2 | — | — | — |
| AraujoLIV · DEFexpected 2.5 | 1 | — | — | — |
| DioufBRE · DEFexpected 1.2 | 1 | — | — | — |
| DamsgaardBRE · MIDexpected 2.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| FrimpongLIV · DEFexpected 1.7 | 1 | — | — | — |
| Van den BergBRE · DEFexpected 0.2 | 1 | — | — | — |
| GomezLIV · DEFexpected 0.4 | 1 | — | — | — |
| O.DangoBRE · MIDexpected 3.0 | 1 | — | — | — |
| KoumasLIV · MIDexpected 2.3 | 1 | — | — | — |
| M.SangaréBRE · MIDexpected 3.6 | 1 | — | — | — |
| JensenBRE · MIDexpected 1.1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| SzoboszlaiLIV · MIDexpected 0.9 | 1 | — | — | — |
| NgumohaLIV · MIDexpected 2.1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mac AllisterLIV · MIDexpected 3.1 | 1 | — | — | — |
| NyoniLIV · MIDexpected 1.6 | 1 | — | — | — |
| HickeyBRE · DEFexpected 1.5 | 1 | — | — | — |
| KayodeBRE · DEFexpected 2.5 | 1 | — | — | — |
| SchadeBRE · MIDexpected 3.4 | 0 | — | — | — |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
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