Calvert-Lewin starts against Spurs: keep him after 'a little setback'

Update, Saturday 7 November

Dominic Calvert-Lewin was in Leeds' starting XI against Spurs for Saturday's 12:30 kick-off at Elland Road. FPL has cleared his flag too, and now lists him as available with a 100% chance of playing. The foot problem did not keep him out.

The bench advice below was wrong, and Friday's deadline has passed, so nothing can be changed for this gameweek. If he is on your bench, his points only count if one of your starters doesn't play and he comes on as an automatic substitute.

From here, keep him. Our 3.4 expected points for this match included a 30% chance that he would not appear at all, and that risk has now gone. He is owned by 18.4% of managers, down from 20.4%. Anyone who swapped him for Thierno Barry shouldn't take a points hit to undo it, but owners should not spend a transfer on moving him on.

Daniel Farke called it "a little setback". Dominic Calvert-Lewin has picked up a new injury and is a doubt for Leeds' home game against Spurs on Saturday 7 November. He is one of several Leeds players whose fitness is in question this week.

When we checked FPL's flag on Thursday evening, it still had him as doubtful with a foot injury and a 75% chance of playing. Our numbers are slightly less generous. We give him a 70% chance of appearing, a 33% chance of scoring and 3.4 expected points for the match. That's a modest return for a forward owned by 20.4% of managers, even if he does make it. The flag could still move before Friday's 18:30 deadline, but the doubt is already priced in.

If you own him and have a fit third forward, bench him. If you don't, the forwards at his price look better this week anyway. Thierno Barry costs £5.6m and comes to 5.1 expected points at home to Coventry City on Friday, with a 41% chance to score. Evanilson, at £6.4m, is on 5.2 expected points away to Ipswich Town on Sunday. Charalampos Kostoulas, at £5.8m, is on 4.9 expected points at home to Brentford. A setback Farke calls "little" is not worth a points hit, but a free transfer is fair game. The injuries page will show any change to the flag.

Bench Calvert-Lewin against Spurs if you can. If you can't, a free transfer to Barry is the better pick than starting a doubtful forward on 3.4 expected points.