Lampard's update, Coventry's fears
Bobby Thomas was supposed to be the easy part of your defence. At £4.0m he's in 9.1% of squads as the cheap starter who frees up money for the rest of your team. But a cheap starter only helps if he starts, and a calf problem has put that in doubt before Coventry host Sunderland on Saturday 31 October.
The Coventry Telegraph reported on Thursday that Frank Lampard has given an update on the defender, under a headline that mentions fears at the club. FPL lists a calf injury and gives him a 50% chance of playing. Nobody has given a return date. Until Lampard speaks again or the teamsheet comes out, that flag is the most honest guide there is.
Worse than 50-50
The market is slightly gloomier than FPL. Our numbers give Thomas a 46% chance of appearing at all, which cuts his expected points against Sunderland to 1.7. That's a bench score, not a starter's. The annoying part is that the attacking threat is there when he plays. His 7% chance to score matches John Egan's, even though his chance of playing is less than half of Egan's. His form isn't the problem. His fitness is.
Hull's defenders are the move
For about the same money, the alternatives are simply far more likely to play. Egan costs £4.1m, has a 93% chance of appearing and is expected to score 3.7 points at home to Ipswich Town, more than double Thomas's figure. If you want a straight swap that doesn't cost the extra £0.1m, his Hull teammate Ryan Giles is £4.0m, expected to score 3.6 and owned by just 2.8%. Kristoffer Ajer also has 3.6 expected points, at home to Nott'm Forest, but he costs £4.5m, which you'd only pay if the Hull pair don't fit your squad.
The call
If Thomas is in your starting XI and you have a free transfer you don't need elsewhere, swap him for Egan. Two extra expected points for £0.1m is good business, and with Egan in 7.3% of squads you won't be going it alone. If your free transfer is already lined up for a bigger move, just bench Thomas and start your next defender. Don't take a points hit for him: paying four points to chase a two-point gap is poor maths.
Check our injuries page for any news before Saturday's deadline, and use the planner to see whether Thomas is worth his place again once Sunderland is out of the way.
Sources: Coventry Telegraph