Arteta's 'problem'
Nobody buys Declan Rice for fireworks. You buy him because he turns up every week, plays the full game and gets you a steady haul without any fuss. That is the whole point of him, and it is exactly what Mikel Arteta has just called into question, days before Arsenal go to Anfield.
FotMob reports that Arteta described Rice's fitness as "a problem" after the Fleetwood game. Goal reports that Rice is one of three Arsenal players racing to be fit for Liverpool on Sunday 1 November. Nobody has said what the injury is or when he will be back. FPL lists it as unspecified and puts him at 75% to play.
Why 70% isn't enough
The market is a little more worried than FPL and gives Rice a 70% chance of appearing at all. Even if he gets through, the fixture does him no favours. Away at Liverpool he is on 3.1 expected points, with a 10% chance of scoring. That is a thin return from a £7.4m midfielder before you even count the chance that he sits on the bench or misses out entirely.
He is only 12.4% owned, so keeping him doesn't protect you against much. If he blanks or doesn't play, most of the managers around you lose nothing.
Mbeumo is the move
Bryan Mbeumo is the clear upgrade. At £7.9m, he goes to Chelsea with Manchester United on Saturday 31 October and is on 4.3 expected points, 1.2 more than Rice, with a 93% chance of appearing and a 27% chance of scoring. At 21.4% owned, he is also the safe choice if you are worried about your rank.
If you can't find the extra £0.5m, Matheus Cunha costs £7.8m and plays in the same game. He is on 4.0 expected points, has the same 93% chance of appearing and is only 6% owned, which makes him a decent differential. Morgan Gibbs-White also projects 4.0 at Brentford, but the market gives him only a 79% chance of appearing, even though FPL says he is fully fit. That makes him the shakiest of the three.
The call: if Rice is in your starting eleven and you have a free transfer, sell him for Mbeumo. If you would rather wait and keep the transfer, at least bench him. A 70% chance of 3.1 points is not worth starting over a fit player. Keep an eye on our injuries page for any update before the deadline.
Sources: Goal.com, FotMob