Expected points
FPL expected points, GW7
Every player, priced in points. “partial” means a component had no market and is left out rather than guessed. Top 25 without an account; everything with one. How to use this →
GW7 archive: as published, frozen before the GW7 deadline, with actual points where the gameweek has been settled. This week's page →
How to use this
- 1Sort by xPts for the best picks this week, by points per million for value, or filter by position to compare like with like.
- 2The goal column is the market's chance the player scores at least once. Start chance is from availability and recent minutes, not from the odds, and is labelled as such.
- 3A player marked partial has a component with no market yet (usually assists early in the week). The number shown leaves that part out rather than guessing.
- 4Use expected points for the week you are picking for. For a five-week view, use the team builder or the analyser.
Where the numbers come from
Expected points apply FPL's scoring to probabilities from the odds: goals and assists from player markets, clean sheets and goals conceded from the match markets, appearance points from start chance. Saves, bonus and defensive contribution come from the player's own season record and are flagged as estimates.
Each number lists how many bookmakers sit behind it, and the whole model is written up on the methodology page.
Questions
- What are FPL expected points?
- The average score a player would get if the gameweek were played many times, built from the probability of each scoring event. Here those probabilities come from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
- Who has the highest expected points in GW7?
- The top row of the table, sorted by xPts. It moves during the week as odds and team news change.
- Is the expected points table free?
- The top 25 players are free without an account; a free account shows every player for the whole season.
- Why does a player show partial or no market?
- Because one of the markets that feeds the number has not been priced yet. We never fill the gap with a guess; the label tells you which part is missing.