Brighton won 1-0 at Man City in GW9. Before kick-off the market gave them a 21% chance, with the draw at 23% and a City win at 56%. A one-in-five result does come in about once every five matches. It shouldn't change your team. What matters for your team is GW10, and the odds for GW10 haven't turned against City.
Man City: the same number, a different ground
City go to Nott'm Forest next, and the market gives them a 56% chance of winning. That is exactly what they had at home to Brighton. Their clean-sheet chance is 33%. Erling Haaland, owned by 78.9% of managers, scored 2 points this week and is on 6.5 expected points for Forest. That is the highest of any player at either club, and it keeps him in the captaincy picture, which you can check on our captain page. Rayan Cherki (37.2% owned) managed 1 point and is on 4.1. Joško Gvardiol (26.6%) scored 2 and is on 4.0, with roughly a one-in-three chance of a clean sheet. None of the three is a sale after one bad afternoon.
Brighton: don't buy last week's points
Brighton are at home to Brentford, with a 49% chance of winning and a 28% chance of a clean sheet. Bart Verbruggen scored 11 points this week and is owned by 22.4% of managers, but his expected points for Brentford are 3.1. With a clean sheet at 28%, a goalkeeper's big week is unlikely to come round again. Maxim De Cuyper (43.7% owned) scored 9 points and is on 4.9. Pascal Groß (46.7%) scored only 2 and is also on 4.9. The market rates them the same for next week, whatever happened on Saturday.
The call
If you own City players, keep them: the market still makes City favourites, and Haaland's 6.5 is the best number here. If you own Groß or De Cuyper, keep them, but they aren't worth a transfer just for this win. If you want a Brighton player, Groß and De Cuyper are on the same expected points. Verbruggen's 11 points are no reason to buy him on 3.1.
Sources: Fantasy Premier League