Pascal Groß played all 90 minutes of Brighton's trip to Man City on Saturday 31 October and came away with 2 points: no goal, no assist. He is owned by 46.7% of managers and 81.7% of the top 10,000, so this blank landed in most squads.
The blank was the likely result
It was also close to what the market expected. At the deadline we had him on 3.9 expected points with a 15% chance to score, so an afternoon without a goal was what the odds pointed to roughly six times in seven. Two points against 3.9 is a below-average week. It is not a sign that anything has changed. Away at City was the hardest fixture on his run, and his numbers already reflected that.
Brentford is a different number
In GW10 Brentford come to Brighton, and the odds move well in his favour. His expected points rise to 4.9, a full point above the City game, and his chance to score goes from 15% to 21%. The market gives Brighton a 49% chance of winning and a 28% chance of a clean sheet. That is a solid midfield number at £6.2m.
For comparison, at around the same money Marcus Tavernier (£6.5m) was on 4.8 for Bournemouth's home game with Leeds today, Harvey Barnes (£6.1m) is on 4.5 for Newcastle at home to Everton on Monday, and Emiliano Buendía (£5.9m) was on 4.4 for Villa at home to Fulham. None of them is enough of an upgrade to justify a transfer, let alone a points hit.
The crowd has it right
There has been less panic than the blank might suggest. Since the GW9 deadline 2,648 managers have sold Groß, but 8,214 have bought him, and his price has not moved. More managers are buying him than selling, and the market agrees with them.
If you own him, keep him and start him against Brentford. If you don't, at 46.7% ownership and 4.9 expected points he is one of the players most of your rivals will have in GW10, not a differential. The planner will show you whether he fits your squad.
Sources: Fantasy Premier League