Nott'm Forest beat Man City 3-1 in GW10. Before kick-off the market gave Forest a 21% chance, with the draw at 24% and City at 55%. That makes it the result of the week, but the more useful question for your team is what the odds make of both clubs for GW11. For City, not much has changed.
Man City: the number still says hold
City are home to Fulham next, and the market makes them 65% to win, with a 35% chance of a clean sheet. If you own Erling Haaland, and 79.2% of managers do, his 2 points this week are no reason to sell. He comes to 6.1 expected points against Fulham, which still puts him among the obvious captain picks.
Rayan Cherki is the trap the other way. He's owned by 33.2% and scored 9 points in defeat, but he comes to only 3.4 expected points for GW11. If you were thinking about buying him on the back of this week's return, his number for Fulham doesn't support it. Joško Gvardiol blanked with 0, but a 35% clean-sheet chance and 3.6 expected points make him a reasonable hold for his 25.2% of owners. Neither of them needs urgent action.
Forest's next match is away at Bournemouth, and the market only gives them a 27% chance of winning, with a 20% chance of a clean sheet. Beating City doesn't change how the odds see them on the road. Morgan Gibbs-White, owned by 9.3%, scored 5 points this week and comes to 3.1 expected points for GW11. That's fine to keep but not worth a transfer.
The defenders look weaker. Neco Williams comes to 2.7 expected points and Daniel Muñoz Mejía to 2.1, and a one-in-five chance of a clean sheet doesn't justify a starting place if you have a better option on the bench.
The call
Hold the City players you own, keep Haaland in the armband conversation, and don't bring in Forest players because of this result. Before you change anything, check the GW11 numbers in the planner.
Sources: Fantasy Premier League