Erling Haaland played all 90 minutes at home to Brighton on Saturday and came away with 2 points: no goal, no assist. At the deadline the odds gave him a 53% chance to score and 7 expected points. He is owned by 78.9% of managers and 99.5% of the top 10,000, so most of the game shared this blank.
What the blank was worth
A 53% chance to score is also a 47% chance not to. One goalless 90 minutes doesn't mean the number was wrong. It means the near coin flip went the other way. The 7 he carried into the match covered every way the afternoon could go, and 2 points was always one of them.
GW10: away at Nott'm Forest
For GW10 the market gives him a 49% chance to score away at Nott'm Forest and 6.5 expected points, with City 56% to win and 33% to keep a clean sheet. That is lower than the 53% and 7 he had for Brighton, but those numbers were for a different match. For next week he is still close to an even chance of a goal.
The crowd
The transfers show no panic. Since the deadline 5,021 managers have brought him in and only 447 have sold, and his price is still £15.8m. The selling barely dents his ownership of nearly 79%: nothing in the GW10 numbers argues for moving him on.
The call
If you own him, keep him. The odds don't justify spending a transfer to sell him. If you don't own him, going without is the bigger risk: with 99.5% of the top 10,000 holding him, every goal he scores costs you rank. Whether to captain him in GW10 is a separate question. Check his 6.5 against the other options on the captain page before the deadline.
Sources: Fantasy Premier League