Bruno Fernandes played all 90 minutes away at Chelsea in GW9 and finished with 2 points: no goal, no assist. He is owned by 22.6% of managers, so plenty of teams will feel it.
What the odds expected
Our numbers never had this down as a big week. At the deadline the market gave Fernandes a 23% chance to score and 3.8 expected points for the trip to Chelsea. In other words, it expected him not to score, and 2 points is a below-average result from a modest starting point, not a surprise. He played the full match, and that is the part that matters for next week.
What the market says for GW10
Manchester United are at home to Aston Villa in GW10, and the odds have gone up slightly. His chance to score is now 29%, up from 23%, and his expected points are 3.9, against 3.8 at Chelsea. The market gives United a 44% chance of winning and a 24% chance of a clean sheet. That is a better fixture, not a great one.
The crowd against the market
Since the deadline, 2,967 managers have sold him and 215 have bought him, and his price has not moved from £11.7m. Next to his ownership, that is a small exodus, and it has come in the same week his number went up.
If you own him, keep him for Villa. Selling a player who just played 90 minutes because of one blank, in a week his odds improved, is a reaction to the scoreline and not to the numbers. The honest caveat is the price: 3.9 expected points is an ordinary return for £11.7m, and only 2% of the top 10,000 managers own him. If you have been planning to move him on, do it because of that number and not because of Saturday's result. If you don't own him, nothing here makes him a buy. Check how he fits your next few weeks in the planner.
Sources: Fantasy Premier League