What the odds say, the likely elevens, and the FPL picks from both sides.
How to use this →Gameweek 11Tips and overview →
This match: Arsenal are favourites at 60%, the draw 23%, and 0-1 the likeliest score. Arsenal are 38% to keep a clean sheet. The pick of the match is Rice on 5.0 expected points. As of Tue 10 Nov, 14:47 UK.
Newcastle are 17% to win at home, Arsenal 60%, the draw 23%: a heavy lean to Arsenal. The market expects 1.0 goals from Newcastle and 2.0 from Arsenal; the likeliest score is 0-1 (10%), then 0-2 and 1-1.
Arsenal are 38% to keep a clean sheet, Newcastle 14%.
Rice is the pick from Arsenal: 5.0 expected points, 14% to score, owned by 2% of the top 10k at £7.5m. Then Gabriel on 4.8 and Ødegaard on 4.7.
The cheap one: Konsa at £4.8m, 4.7 points and 93% to start.
Flagged: Saka (out).
No captain here: the best pick in the match, Rice, is 5.0 against Haaland's 7.2 elsewhere.
| 3.1 |
| 22% |
| 1% |
| + Watch |
| HallNEW · DEF£5.2m · 93% to start | 2.9 | 6% | 20% | + Watch |
| OsulaNEW · FWD£5.8m · 79% to start | 2.7 | 20% | 0% | + Watch |
| N.GonzalezNEW · MID£5.5m · 79% to start | 2.6 | — | — | + Watch |
| Player | GW11 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RiceARS · MID£7.5m · 93% to start | 5.0 | 14% | 2% | + Watch |
| GabrielARS · DEF£8.1m · 93% to start | 4.8 | 12% | 15% | + Watch |
| ØdegaardARS · MID£6.7m · 93% to start | 4.7 | 25% | 6% | + Watch |
| KonsaARS · DEF£4.8m · 93% to start | 4.7 | 9% | 86% | + Watch |
| HavertzARS · FWD£7.4m · 93% to start | 4.4 | 33% | 1% | + Watch |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
A free account brings the deadline email with your captain and bench, injury alerts for players you watch, and price alerts the evening before they move.