What the odds say, the likely elevens, and the FPL picks from both sides.
How to use this →Gameweek 11Tips and overview →
This match: Chelsea are favourites at 51%, the draw 25%, and 1-1 the likeliest score. Chelsea are 32% to keep a clean sheet. The pick of the match is Palmer on 5.3 expected points. As of Tue 10 Nov, 14:47 UK.
Chelsea are 51% to win at home, Leeds 24%, the draw 25%. The market expects 1.7 goals from Chelsea and 1.1 from Leeds; the likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), then 1-0 and 2-1.
Chelsea are 32% to keep a clean sheet, Leeds 18%.
Palmer is the pick from Chelsea: 5.3 expected points, 35% to score, owned by 76% of the top 10k at £9.8m. Then Rogers on 4.7 and Neto on 4.3.
Flagged: João Pedro (out), (out), (out) and ().
Calvert-Lewin is the pick from Leeds: 3.9 expected points, 28% to score, owned by 23% of the top 10k at £6.0m. Then Muharemović on 3.5 and Tanaka on 3.2.
Nobody from Leeds clears 4 points, so this is a match to pick against rather than from.
The cheap one: Muharemović at £5.1m, 3.5 points and 93% to start.
Flagged: Stach (50%).
No captain here: the best pick in the match, Palmer, is 5.3 against Haaland's 7.2 elsewhere.
| 4.7 |
| 30% |
| 93% |
| + Watch |
| NetoCHE · MID£6.6m · 93% to start | 4.3 | 23% | 1% | + Watch |
| WelbeckCHE · FWD£5.8m · 93% to start | 3.3 | 29% | — | + Watch |
| ColwillCHE · DEF£4.8m · 93% to start | 3.2 | 8% | — | + Watch |
| Player | GW11 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvert-LewinLEE · FWD£6.0m · 93% to start | 3.9 | 28% | 23% | + Watch |
| MuharemovićLEE · DEF£5.1m · 93% to start | 3.5 | 6% | 37% | + Watch |
| TanakaLEE · MID£4.9m · 93% to start | 3.2 | 9% | — | + Watch |
| AmpaduLEE · MID£5.3m · 93% to start | 3.1 | 6% | — | + Watch |
| JustinLEE · DEF£4.5m · 93% to start | 2.9 | 6% | 1% | + Watch |
From recent starts and FPL's flags; the line-ups page has every club.
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
A free account brings the deadline email with your captain and bench, injury alerts for players you watch, and price alerts the evening before they move.