What the odds say, the likely elevens, and the FPL picks from both sides.
How to use this →Gameweek 11Tips and overview →
This match: Aston Villa are favourites at 54%, the draw 24%, and 1-1 the likeliest score. Aston Villa are 35% to keep a clean sheet. The pick of the match is N.Jackson on 5.8 expected points. As of Tue 10 Nov, 14:47 UK.
Aston Villa are 54% to win at home, Sunderland 21%, the draw 24%. The market expects 1.8 goals from Aston Villa and 1.1 from Sunderland; the likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), then 1-0 and 2-1.
Aston Villa are 35% to keep a clean sheet, Sunderland 16%.
E.Le Fée is the pick from Sunderland: 3.7 expected points, 17% to score, owned by 1% of the top 10k at £5.7m. Then Sadiki on 2.7 and N.Angulo on 2.6.
Nobody from Sunderland clears 4 points, so this is a match to pick against rather than from.
N.Jackson is the 2nd best pick of Gameweek 11 on 5.8, behind Haaland on 7.2: a captain option, not the first one.
| 5.5 |
| 28% |
| 26% |
| + Watch |
| McGinnAVL · MID£5.4m · 93% to start | 4.4 | 18% | 1% | + Watch |
| LindelöfAVL · DEF£4.5m · 93% to start | 4.0 | 8% | 0% | + Watch |
| KamaraAVL · MID£5.0m · 93% to start | 3.6 | 9% | — | + Watch |
| Player | GW11 pts | Score | Top 10k | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Le FéeSUN · MID£5.7m · 93% to start | 3.7 | 17% | 1% | + Watch |
| SadikiSUN · MID£4.8m · 93% to start | 2.7 | 5% | — | + Watch |
| N.AnguloSUN · MID£5.0m · 93% to start | 2.6 | — | — | + Watch |
| HumeSUN · DEF£4.2m · 93% to start | 2.6 | 11% | 0% | + Watch |
| XhakaSUN · MID£5.3m · 70% to start | 2.5 | 9% | 0% | + Watch |
Each match page reads the same projection run as every other tool, so its picks agree with the captain page, the planner and the player pages. Nothing here is a tip: the numbers are the market's view of the match, turned into FPL points.
Pages exist for every match from Gameweek 7 to the next open deadline. A page for a match the bookmakers have not priced shows our club-strength estimates, marked as such, until the odds land.
Full methodology →From the bookmakers' odds for the match result and each side's goals, with every bookmaker's margin removed and the sharper books weighted higher. The likeliest score is the Poisson combination of the two expected-goals figures.
The picks table on each side ranks the likely starters by expected points, with the chance of a goal and top-10k ownership beside each. The rundown says whether anyone in the match is a captain option.
Every hour from recent starts and FPL's flags, which move most after the managers' press conferences, usually two days before the match.
A free account brings the deadline email with your captain and bench, injury alerts for players you watch, and price alerts the evening before they move.